Labor Line

September 2013___________________________________

Labor line has job news and commentary with a one stop short cut for America's job markets and job related data including the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

This month's job and employment summary data are below. This month's inflation data is below.

The Establishment Job Report and Establishment Job Details for data released September 6, 2013.

American Job Market The Chronicle

Current Job and Employment Data

Jobs
Total Non-Farm Establishment Jobs up 169,000 to 136,133,000
Total Private Jobs up 152,000 to 114,302,000
Total Government Employment up 17,000 to 21,831,000

Employment Note
Civilian Non-Institutional Population up 203,000 to 245,959,000
Civilian Labor Force down 312,000 to 155,486,000
Employed down 115,000 to 144,170,000
Employed Men down 302,000 to 76,164,000
Employed Women up 186,000 to 68,005,000
Unemployed down 198,000 to 11,316,000
Not in the Labor Force up 516,000 to 90,473,000

Unemployment Rate down .1 percent at 7.3%, or 11,316/155,486
Labor Force Participation Rate down .2 percent at 63.2%, or 155,486 /245,959

Prices and inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all Urban Consumers was down 1.69 percent for 2010.

The September CPI report for the 12 months ending with August 2013, shows the

CPI for All Items was up 1.5%
CPI for Food and Beverages was up 1.4%
CPI for Housing was up 2.2%
CPI for Apparel was up 1.8%
CPI for Transportation including gasoline was up 1.0%
CPI for Medical Care was up 2.3%
CPI for Recreation was up .4%
CPI for Education was up 3.6%
CPI for Communication was down .4%

This Month's Establishment Jobs Press Report

The October data report remains unpublished as of October 7. I am sorry about this. Below is the September Report and I will update as soon as data is published.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published its September report of jobs in August. The labor force dropped by 312 thousand as a combination of a drop of 115 thousand employed and a decline of 198 thousand in the unemployed. The large percentage drop in the unemployed combined with a smaller percentage drop in the labor force to push the unemployment rate down .1 percent to 7.3 percent. Employment for women increased as employment for men decreased, both for the second month in a row. The participation rate dropped .2 percent to 63.2 percent, the lowest rate in two decades.

The seasonally adjusted total of establishment jobs was up 169 thousand for August. The increase was 134 thousand more private sector service jobs combined with an increase of 18 thousand goods production jobs and a drop of 2 thousand government service jobs.

August had a net gain of 18 thousand jobs in goods production. Manufacturing leads the way with 14 thousand new jobs, but it was a combination of 18.8 thousand new car jobs, a few small gains in durable goods and a net loss of 8 thousand jobs in nondurable goods, especially printing, chemicals, and plastics. Natural resources did better than usual but still only 4 thousand new jobs for a small sector of only 877 thousand total jobs. Construction stayed the same after last months decrease.

Government had a net decrease of 2 thousand jobs as a combination of declines in federal, state and local government, excluding education. Seasonally adjusted public school education was up a net 19 thousand jobs which was a combination of 20.1 thousand more local education and a drop of 1.1 thousand jobs in state education. Private school education jobs were up again with 5.3 thousand new jobs for August.

Trade, transportation and utility had the biggest job gains among services for August with 64 thousand new jobs. Retail trade had most of the gains, up 44 thousand jobs; wholesale trade was up with 8.4 thousand new jobs, more than last month. Transportation had a net gain of 12.0 thousand jobs with most of the gain in transit and ground passenger transportation that came after last months losses. Utilities had a small but unusual decline.

Health care recovered to a more typical monthly gain of 38 thousand new jobs after last month's tiny increase. Ambulatory care had most of the gain. The annual growth rate this month is 2.65 percent, a little above the long term 15 year growth rate of 2.35 percent. Health care needs to continue as a major supplier of jobs as there is no obvious replacement if it does not.

Professional and business services had another month of job gains, 23 thousand more jobs for August. Professional and technical services had a net of 10.9 thousand of the job gains in legal, accounting and computer design services. Administrative support added 13.4 thousand jobs, 13.1 thousand in temporary help services.

Leisure and hospitality had a typical increase of 27 thousand jobs with most of the gains at restaurants, 21.2 thousand new jobs, and another 5.7 thousand in accommodations. Performing arts, spectator sports, museums, amusements, gambling and recreation had a net gain of a 100 jobs.

Both information services and financial activities returned to their usual losses. August losses for information services were mostly in motion pictures and sound recordings with a net loss of 18 thousand jobs. August losses for financial activities were a net of 5 thousand jobs, mostly in real estate. Non profit organizations were down 2.3 thousand jobs.

The August gain of 169 thousand jobs brings another adequate increase in a sustained period of monthly increases. Most of the industry sectors returned to their normal role in monthly job reports: retail and wholesale trade, restaurants, health care and education to job gains, information services and financial activities to job losses. Manufacturing keeps adding some jobs, but not enough to be much help. The maximum of seasonally adjusted monthly employment came in January 2008 at just over 138 million jobs. If monthly increases of 169 thousand continue it will take 11 months to reach the former high.

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August Details

Non Farm Total +169
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Non-Farm employment for establishments increased from July by 169 thousand jobs for an August total of 136,133 million. (Note 1 below) An increase of 169 thousand each month for the next 12 months represents an annual growth rate of 1.49%. The annual growth rate from a year ago beginning August 2012 was +1.65%; the average annual growth rate from 5 years ago beginning August 2008 was -.10%; from 15 years ago beginning August 1998 it was .49%. America needs growth around 1.5 percent a year to keep itself employed.

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Sector breakdown for 12 Sectors in 000's of jobs

1. Natural Resources +4
Natural Resources including logging and mining were up 4 thousand from July at 877 thousand jobs in August. An increase of 4 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +5.50 percent. Natural resource jobs are up 28 thousand for the 12 months just ended. Jobs in the 1990's totaled around 770 thousand. Job growth here will be small compared to America's job needs. This is the smallest of 12 major sectors of the economy with .6 percent of establishment jobs.

2. Construction +0
Construction jobs stayed the same at 5.798 million jobs in August. Construction jobs are up 168 thousand for the last 12 months. The growth rate for the last 5 years is -4.01%. Construction jobs rank 9th among the 12 sectors with 4.3 percent of non farm employment.

3. Manufacturing +14
Manufacturing jobs were up 14 thousand from July at 11.963 million in August. An increase of 14 thousand jobs each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.41 percent. Manufacturing jobs were up for the last 12 months by 20 thousand. The growth rate for the last 5 years is -2.18%. In 1994, manufacturing ranked 2nd but now ranks 6th among 12 major sectors in the economy with 8.8 percent of establishment jobs.

4. Trade, Transportation & Utility +64
Trade, both wholesale and retail, transportation and utility employment was up by 64 thousand jobs from July to 26.037 million jobs in August. These jobs tend to increase at a slower rate than the total of non-farm jobs, but an increase of 64 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.96 percent. Jobs are up by 517 thousand for the last 12 months. Growth rates for the last 5 years are -.16 percent. Jobs in these sectors rank first as the biggest sectors with combined employment of 19.0 percent of total establishment employment.

5. Information Services -18
Information Services employment was down by 18 thousand from July at 2.683 million jobs in August. A decrease of 18 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -8.0 percent. (Note 2 below) Jobs are up by 1 thousand for the last 12 months. Monthly employment in information services gyrates and has been doing so for a number of years. Information jobs reached 3.7 million at the end of 2000, but started dropping, reaching 3 million by 2004 and further below 3 million by 2008. Information Services is a small sector ranking 11th of 12 with 2.0 percent of establishment jobs.

6. Financial Activities -5
Financial Activities were down 5 thousand jobs from July to 7.903 million in August. A decrease of 5 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.76 percent. Jobs are up 108 thousand for the last 12 months. (Note 3 below)This sector also includes real estate as well as real estate lending. Financial Services has been declining with negative annual growth rates, a 5 year growth rate of -.75 percent, and a 15 year growth rate of
+.26 percent. Financial activities rank 8 of 12 with 5.8 percent of establishment jobs.

7. Business & Professional Services +23
Business and Professional Service jobs went up 23 thousand from July to 18.608 million in August. An increase of 23 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +1.49 percent. Jobs are up 614 thousand for the last 12 months. Note 4 The annual growth rate for the last 5 years was .99 percent. It ranks as 2nd among the 12 sectors. It was third in May 1993, when manufacturing was bigger and second rank now with 13.6 percent of establishment employment.

8. Education including public and private +24
Education jobs went up 24 thousand jobs from July at 13.538 million in July. These include public and private education. An increase of 24 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.16 percent. Jobs are down 7 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 5) Most monthly educational employment goes up, but lately it is down. The 15 year growth rate equals 1.34 percent, faster than the national average. Education ranks 4th among 12 sectors with 10.0 percent of establishment jobs.

9. Health Care +38
Health care jobs were up 38 thousand from July to 17.353 million in August. An increase of 38 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.65 percent. Jobs are up 354 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 6) The current month was above long term trends and more than growth from a year ago when the annual growth rate was +2.08 percent. Health care has been growing at +2.35 percent annual growth rate for 15 years, a rate not quite double the national rate. Health care ranks 3rd of 12 with 12.7 percent of establishment jobs.

10. Leisure and hospitality +27
Leisure and hospitality jobs went up 27 thousand from July to 14.212 million in August. An increase of 27 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of +2.28 percent. Jobs are up 424 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 7) The 5 year growth rate is 1.14%. More than 80 percent of leisure and hospitality are accommodations and restaurants assuring that most of the new jobs are in restaurants. Leisure and hospitality ranks 4th of 12 with 10.4 percent of establishment jobs. It moved up from 7th in the 1990's to 5th in the last few years.

11. Other +0
Other Service jobs, which include repair, maintenance, personal services and non-profit organizations stayed the same for July at 5.481 million in August. Jobs are up 45 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 8) Other services had -.11 percent growth for the last 5 years. These sectors rank 10th of 12 with 4.0 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.

12. Government, excluding education -2
Government service employment went down 2 thousand from July to 11.678 million in August. A decrease of 2 thousand each month for the next 12 months would be an annual growth rate of -.15 percent. Jobs are down 66 thousand for the last 12 months. (note 9) Government jobs excluding education tend to increase slowly but surely with a 15 year growth rate of .35 percent. Government, excluding education, ranks 7th of 12 with 8.6 percent of total non-farm establishment jobs.


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Sector Notes___________________________

(1) The total cited above is non-farm establishment employment that counts jobs and not people. If one person has two jobs then two jobs are counted. It excludes agricultural employment and the self employed. Out of a total of people employed agricultural employment typically has about 1.5 percent, the self employed about 6.8 percent, the rest make up wage and salary employment. Jobs and people employed are close to the same, but not identical numbers because jobs are not the same as people employed: some hold two jobs. Remember all these totals are jobs. back

(2) Information Services is part of the new North American Industry Classification System(NAICS). It includes firms or establishments in publishing, motion picture & sound recording, broadcasting, Internet publishing and broadcasting, telecommunications, ISPs, web search portals, data processing, libraries, archives and a few others.back

(3) Financial Activities includes deposit and non-deposit credit firms, most of which are still known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but also real estate firms and general and commercial rental and leasing.back

(4) Business and Professional services includes the professional areas such as legal services, architecture, engineering, computing, advertising and supporting services including office services, facilities support, services to buildings, security services, employment agencies and so on.back

(5) Education includes private and public education. Therefore education job totals include public schools and colleges as well as private schools and colleges. back

(6) Health care includes ambulatory care, private hospitals, nursing and residential care, and social services including child care. back

(7) Leisure and hospitality has establishment with arts, entertainment and recreation which has performing arts, spectator sports, gambling, fitness centers and others, which are the leisure part. The hospitality part has accommodations, motels, hotels, RV parks, and full service and fast food restaurants. back

(8) Other is a smorgasbord of repair and maintenance services, especially car repair, personal services and non-profit services of organizations like foundations, social advocacy and civic groups, and business, professional, labor unions, political groups and political parties. back

(9) Government job totals include federal, state, and local government administrative work but without education jobs. back

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Notes

Jobs are not the same as employment because jobs are counted once but one person could have two jobs adding one to employment but two to jobs. Also the employment numbers include agricultural workers, the self employed, unpaid family workers, household workers and those on unpaid leave. Jobs are establishment jobs and non-other. back

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