Corrections

A Career in Corrections

The Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) manual of the Bureau of Labor Statistics has four jobs specialized to a career in corrections. These jobs are in addition to managerial, maintenance and institutional food service jobs that are found in many sectors of the economy. They are specialized to corrections because 96 to 99 percent of them are in state and local government. A career in corrections is also a career in government.

As of the May 2006 Occupational Survey, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 37.4 thousand first line supervisors of correctional officers, 417.8 thousand correctional officers and jailers, 17.9 thousand bailiffs, and 89.7 thousand probation officers and correctional treatment specialists. All have growing employment with more jobs than 2000. Only jobs in education and teaching outnumber corrections employment in state and local government, which is the second leading employment in state and local government.

Total employment in the four corrections jobs comes to 562.8 thousand jobs, but those are the jobs keeping and managing prisoners. There are more jobs getting them there. Police patrol officers, police detectives, criminal investigators, lawyers, judges, magistrates, hearing officers, counselors, and social workers. Prisons support work in the construction industry and sales of guns, bullets, vests, shields, helmets, batons.

These jobs depend on prisoners, which are in the millions and on the rise. The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports prison data on their Website. Between 1980 and 2006 the prison population increased every single year at an average yearly rate of 6.11 percent, a 367 percent increase over the 26-year period. Add the prison population to the jail population and the total incarcerated is just over 2.26 million in 2006. The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports 7.2 million Americans under correctional supervision, or 2.26 million in prisons and jails, 765 thousand on parole and 4.1 million on probation for 2004.

For the prison population to grow as it is the number sentenced and admitted must be bigger than the number released. But in the 1990’s the number released began increasing toward a half million a year. Undoubtedly some of those released already had a prison record, but a half million prison releases a year implies a rapid increase of people with a record, people who will need jobs. Those under correctional supervision already total 4.7 percent of the civilian workforce, but those on parole, probation or with a criminal record are rising rapidly and much more than 4.7 percent of the labor force.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that job prospects in corrections will be excellent. They are forecasting the need to replace correctional officers who leave for other jobs or retirement and their expectation of rising employment demand are cited as the reasons. If past trends in both employment and prisoners, they are correct in their forecast.

Median salaries tend to be in the mid-thirties range, but with a long term commitment and perhaps advancement to supervisor salaries rise into the fifties. Probation officers have the highest salaries, but probation officers require a BA degree in social work, whereas high school skills with some corrections sponsored training is usually enough to get started.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also reports that corrections work can be stressful and hazardous with job shifts day or night, weekday or weekend. Some prisons are well maintained, but they warn that some prisons are old, overcrowded, hot and noisy. Prisoners are not known for their amiability or good party manners.

A job is a requirement and America needs jobs, but an economy where manufacturing jobs decline month after month creates the possibility that attitudes toward prison terms are influenced by layoffs and the need for jobs. Reducing the prison population is doubly difficult because it means layoffs in prison employment, but former convicts need to have jobs as well.

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Investing in Education

There are several ways to estimate returns on investments in education, or other types of investments for that matter. One way is to compare wages between jobs using general workforce skills with jobs that need college degree skills. Compare wages for a certified teacher with a college degree to wages for a teaching assistant, for example.

Another way converts college tuition and expenses into an estimate of a minimum wage or minimum salary increase that will make college a paying investment. The process requires interest calculations because money paid for college tuition and expenses could be used to buy stocks and bonds or other interest earning assets. Tuition and expenses amounts to an investment in a higher paying job, even though college students may want to go to college for other reasons.

Suppose in-state tuition at public college is $6,000 per year each year for four years. In some states like North Carolina, the state tuition is reported as $3,886, while in others like Michigan it is $7,115. Some are above, some below $6,000, but we let $6,000 be a representative tuition for 2007. In the first year $6,000 invested in stocks and bonds would earn interest or dividends. Similarly in the second year, except $12,000 would be invested and the second year earns interest or dividends on $12,000. At the end of four years at the time of graduation the principal invested and the interest earned is a total amount, which will equal $27,230.82 at 5 percent interest.

The principal amount of $27,230.82 earning 5 percent interest over the next 10 years and compounding monthly will be equal to $44,849.42. Start at graduation and $288.82 of extra income each month over the next 10 years using 5 percent interest will also be the same $44,848.63. The $288.82 equals the minimum extra monthly earnings necessary to pay for a college education at an interest rate of 5 percent. Using a forty-hour week and 160 hours a month it is less than $2.00 an hour of extra wage and salary that pays for college. Nothing is a guarantee but expect college to pay.

Our thanks for these calculations go to the built-in spreadsheet functions on MS Excel. Experiment yourself. Use the Excel help file under FV, which is the future value function. The spreadsheet entries above are =FV(.05/12,120,0,-27230.82,1) and =FV(.05/12,120,-288.82,0,0).

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Returns to Education

Returns to a College Education

"Seven years of college down the drain."
-John Blutarsky

Mr. Blutarsky, as many will remember, offered the conclusion above to his Delta house frat brothers following their especially memorable meeting with Dean Wormer. The statement is correct. Anyone who attends college for seven years only to be expelled without a degree, and with Mr. Blutarsky's zero point zero GPA will not earn any return on their college investment. Otherwise though, expect college to pay.

Occasionally in the popular press there will be an article discussing the trials and troubles of college graduates in the market place. Someone's promising son with a BA degree in management science cannot find a job and after hundreds and hundreds of unsuccessful applications he takes a job with a gutter cleaning company. He cleans gutters. A quotation from the hang wringing parents usually includes "Our college investment was a waste. It's not like it was in the good old days."

Let’s not be too sure. Remember that graduation from college for the many who attend college right after high school implies entry into the labor force at age 22. The social security retirement age is 67 years. Congress and the country are expecting 45 years of work. One bad year does not assure ruination and a life hanging on the eves. If we can presume that a management science degree means a person with some skills and curiosity, it is quite possible that advancement to gutter crew supervisor and then perhaps gutter manager is in the future. Maybe college skills give him the ability to start a gutter cleaning firm and then a gutter cleaning franchise. Millions earned as a franchise tycoon could be the future, it is hard to tell because figuring an accurate investment return for 45 years requires knowledge of interest rates, inflation and future salaries. Past trends give some ability to know these things, but the key components can only be estimated over such a long period of time. It is better to focus on the near term, which usually gives the correct answer anyway.

There are several ways to estimate returns on investments in education, or other types of investments for that matter. The need for calculations of compound interest gives the impression that investment returns are precise and use only one procedure. However, there are different procedures, even though the actual arithmetic is always precise. Economists, for example, like to include the time in college as time away from work. If time in college is time away from work then lost or foregone wages as well as tuition payments will be a cost of college and included in calculations. Those less devoted to the economist’s way might wonder why time in college is time away from work. Many go to college and work. The time in college might come from leisure or free time instead of work. The matter is in doubt and depends partly on preference.

Despite the need for choice in computing educational return a few comparisons can give meaning and substance to the great American cry "Get some training." High school degree or GED skills are general workforce skills. Millions of America’s jobs need only on the job training and general workforce skills. If we look at wages for some of the jobs with general workforce skills and compare them to other positions requiring college degree skills we can make some easy comparisons.
Suppose a brokerage clerk earns the median wage reported for brokerage clerks, but wants to go to college to become a personal financial advisor. The median wage reported for brokerage clerks is $36,390; the median wage for personal financial advisors is $66,120. If the difference of annual income is more than a year of college tuition, expect college to pay.

Suppose a bookkeeper earns the median wage reported for bookkeepers, but wants to go to college and become an accountant. The median wage for bookkeeping is $30,560; the median wage for accountants and auditors is $54,630.
Suppose a teaching assistant earns the median wage reported for teaching assistants but wants to go to college to become a certified teacher. Teaching assistants earn a median salary of $20,740; certified public and private school teachers have a median wage of $45,000 to $47,000.

Check wages between civil engineers and civil engineering assistants, or architects and architectural and civil drafters, or physical therapists and physical therapists aides and so on. For the many jobs where annual wages jump more than a year’s tuition, compound interest calculations are not important.

Rather than comparing reported wages it is possible to convert college tuition and expenses into an estimate of a minimum wage or minimum salary increase that will make college a paying investment. The process requires interest calculations because money paid for college tuition and expenses could be used to buy stocks and bonds or other interest earning assets. Tuition and expenses amounts to an investment in a higher paying job, even though college students may want to go to college for other reasons.

Suppose in-state tuition at public college is $6,000 per year each year for four years. In some states like North Carolina, the state tuition is reported as $3,886, while in others like Michigan it is $7,115. Some are above, some below $6,000, but we let $6,000 be a representative tuition for 2007. In the first year $6,000 invested in stocks and bonds would earn interest or dividends. Similarly in the second year, except $12,000 would be invested and the second year earns interest or dividends on $12,000. At the end of four years at the time of graduation the principal invested and the interest earned is a total amount, which will equal $27,230.82 at 5 percent interest. Our thanks for the $27,230.82 total goes to the built in spreadsheet functions on MS Excel.

Suppose instead it is necessary to borrow the $6,000 each year to pay tuition. Not every one has $6,000 a year to invest in anything, much less a college education. Borrowing the money does not change the calculation unless interest rates differ between borrowing and investing. To have the college investment pay, a higher income stream from a higher paying job must be equal to, or greater than, monthly earnings on $27,230.82. If we presume the same 5 percent interest rate, then borrowing only changes $27,230.82 of equity investment into $27,230.82 of debt. Either way the college investment amount is $27,230.82 after four years.

The principal amount of $27,230.82 earning 5 percent interest over the next 10 years and compounding monthly will be equal to $44,849.42. Start at graduation and $288.82 of extra income each month over the next 10 years using 5 percent interest will also be the same $44,848.63. The $288.82 equals the minimum extra monthly earnings necessary to pay for a college education at an interest rate of 5 percent. A lower interest rate will lower the amount of necessary earnings; higher interest rate will raise the amount. Using a forty-hour week and 160 hours a month it is less than $2.00 an hour of extra wage and salary that pays for college. Experiment yourself. Use the Excel help file under FV, which stands for future value. The spreadsheet entries above are =FV(.05/12,120,0,-27230.82,1) and =FV(.05/12,120,-288.82,0,0).

The $288.82 a month could go up or down depending on a number of variables and there is some additional risk using debt to pay for college. There is a difference of risk between debt and equity financing college because there can be a delay in getting a better job. Delays leading to missed loan payments mean unpaid interest added to principal, making it quite possible to be overwhelmed with rising payments. This could be true even though a delay may not make the investment unprofitable over the long term.

Bad timing could ruin an otherwise paying investment, but even long delays getting a better job or periods of no additional earnings will probably not eliminate the financial advantage of a college degree. Maybe our management science major above waits 10 years to get a job with a raise. After 10 years he has nothing to compare against the $44,849.42 mentioned above. But suppose he lands the right job and makes extra income for the next twenty years. The $44,849.42 at 5 percent interest will be $121,660.74 after twenty more years, but extra earnings of just $295.98 a month for those same twenty years will equal $121,657.75. Any amount of additional earnings over $295.98 a month at 5 percent interest over those twenty years and college pays.

Suppose interest rates go from 5 to 10 percent in the example above where tuition was $6,000 per year. The same $6,000 per year for four years goes up to $30,975.84 from $27,230.82. The higher principal will increase much faster at 10 percent over the next 10 years and compounding monthly will be equal to $83,852.88 instead of $44,849.42. The minimum monthly wage and salary increase necessary to pay for college tuition at 10 percent over the next 10 years jumps to $409.34 per month instead of $288.82. Higher interest rates make college a less attractive investment, but millions of jobs open up to college graduates that will cover a salary increase of $409.34 a month for 10 years.

In the present circumstance of education, jobs and interest rates, the extra monthly earnings necessary to pay for college is low enough to expect college to pay. It is not a guarantee, but comparing current graduation with job growth and job openings further suggests that college graduates will earn at least the minimum salary increase to make college pay.

Baccalaureate degrees were 1.4 million for the year ending June 2005 with degrees up every year since 1994 when the baccalaureate total was 1.1 million. The Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey reports educational attainment for adults over age 25. Those employed with a BA degree or higher are up and although the increase has been fluctuating in recent years, the increase averages 1 million to 1.1 million a year in the years leading up to 2007.

The Current Population Survey counts people employed and not specifically their jobs. It does not tell us if the increase of people with new degrees also find jobs using college degree skills, only that they are finding jobs. Other surveys of the Bureau of Labor Statistics count jobs and occupations for establishments. Establishment jobs ended the calendar year 2005 with 2.3 million more jobs than 2004, but we should expect new graduates to be looking for new jobs using their college degree skills. There is help in counting the jobs using college degree skills because the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes a skills taxonomy that gives a clear assessment of the jobs that need college degree skills, along with those that do not. In 2004, establishment jobs with a Bureau of Labor Statistics skills classification needing a BA degree, masters, doctorate, or professional degree came to 26.4 million. The number of college degree jobs increased an average of 950 thousand for the years from 2004 to 2006, when the new total is 28.3 million.

If you are paying close attention, you noticed new degrees outnumber new jobs using college degree skills, but chances for a new job improve the more current job holders leave the workforce to retire or for other reason. People who retire need to be replaced before there can be growth. Replacing people in addition to job growth is defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics as job openings. Openings in any occupation that has job growth will be greater than job growth. If jobs are declining, openings will be limited to replacement jobs, but otherwise openings are greater than job growth. Openings for jobs using college degree skills are forecast by BLS to increase at 1.2 million a year through 2016.

Even though college graduates are increasing faster than jobs and openings in the Bureau of Labor Statistics college degree categories, the difference is modest. However, it is not necessary to have a job using college degree skills to make college pay. Moving from a job as bookkeeper to an accountant with a college degree makes it easy to establish cause and effect for higher pay and a college degree. That is important because making college pay depends on a higher wage because of a college degree. Often it is easy to establish cause and effect like the bookkeeper who becomes an accountant, but not always.

Sometimes people with college degrees take jobs that do not need college degree skills. Employers might prefer people with college degrees even though they might be over qualified for the work. They might pay someone with a college degree more than a high school graduate in the same job. Cause and effect is hard to establish, but it would be necessary to have a college graduate in a high school job and earning no more than high school graduates if college does not pay. Making college pay is a financial matter, not a matter of job title or status. As of 2007, the financial evidence is clear enough to predict college will pay.

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Ten Year Change Report

Ten Year job Change Report

When the BLS situation report comes out each month job totals go up. An increase in jobs is an easy forecast because the population is growing. In 1990 the Bureau of the Census reported 189 million in the civilian population older than 16. After 17 years of continuous increase the civilian population reached 231 million in 2007. Population and jobs go together because people have to have jobs. Large scale unemployment in an urban society guarantees untenable social, economic and political conditions. Politicians will do whatever is necessary to keep spending high enough to generate new jobs, but it is not enough to ask if jobs are increasing. It is more important to ask if they are increasing enough to sustain a society that relies on jobs for self support?

One way to look at job growth is to make a chart of job differences over a long period like 10 years. Suppose we take monthly data for employment for December 2007 and subtract it from monthly data from December 1997, exactly 10 years before. The difference gives the increase or decrease for the decade from December 2007 to December 1997. Suppose further we back up a month and take the difference of November 2007 and November 1997 and so on. That way there is a number that equals the increase, or possible decrease, over ten years that can be paired with its date and plotted on a chart. Fellow bloggers are invited to review the series of charts below and make up their own mind about jobs.

Pictures Worth a Thousand Words

Chart 1 below has a plot of monthly 10 year change for the civilian labor force plotted from January 2000. Notice among the ups and downs that Chart 1 starts out on the left side with a number just under 17 million. Therefore, the labor force in January 2000 is about 17 million more than January 1990. Notice on the right side of the chart that 2007 ends with a number just under 17 million making the current labor force about 17 million more than January 1997. Even though the Chart gyrates there is no overall trend of differences. It remains roughly flat with an average 10 year monthly gain around 17 million a month over month.

Chart 1 - Civilian Labor Force 10 Year Change



Chart 2 plots 10 year changes for non-farm establishment employment. Around May 2001 there were 24 million more establishment jobs than May 1991. After that the ten year change of new jobs starts to decline and keeps declining month after month after month until around March 2005. It levels off some and then declines further up to the end of 2007. The decline contrasts with continued growth of population and steady change in the labor force. The last month on the Chart is Decmber 2007 with an increase of 14.1 million.

Chart 2 - All of Non-Farm Establishment Employment 10 Year Change



The remaining charts, Charts 3 through 11, show 10 Year job changes in the same way but for broad industry categories. Chart 3, goods production jobs in natural resources, construction and manufacturing helps show America's transition to a service economy. The remaining charts are all service charts and we have to hope there are enough good jobs in services to make a smooth transition to that well publicized service economy.

Scroll down to Chart 4 with Wholesale and Retail Trade, Transportation and Utilities, and Chart 5 Information Services. Keep scrolling to find the profile for financial activities, business and professional services, public and private education, health care, leisure and hospitality, which is mostly restaurants, and government employment excluding education. Remember the government the great engine of employment.

Chart 3 - Goods Production - Natural Resources, Construction, Mfg 10 Year Change



Chart 4 - Wholesale and Retail Trade, Transportation and Utilities 10 Year Change



Chart 5 - Information Services 10 Year Change



Chart 6 - Financial Activities - Banking, Credit and Real Estate 10 Year Change



Chart 7 - Business and Professional Services 10 Year Change



Chart 8 - Public and Private Education 10 Year Change



Chart 9 - Health Care 10 Year Change



Chart 10 - Leisure and Hospitality 10 Year Change



Chart 11 - Government excluding Education 10 Year Change

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Service Jobs - Summary

On this post we want to summarize the big picture of changes to service providing jobs from 1990 through 2010. The table below highlights sector job counts detailed from the sector job posts above. Remember it does not count people employed, which averaged 139.1 million for 2010. People employed counts wage and salary employment and the self employed both in and out of agriculture. The table below counts jobs, otherwise known as establishment employment without any self employed, which had a monthly average total of 129.8 million jobs in 2010. Jobs do not equal people employed because one person can have two or more jobs. One person with two jobs is counted twice in the jobs data, but once in the people employed data.

Summary of Service Industry Employment with pie charts below



Columns (2) and (4) in the table have annual average establishment employment by North American Industry Classification for 1990 and 2010. Columns (3) and (5) have their respective percentage shares of establishment employment with column (6) showing the gain or loss of jobs from 1990 to 2010. Column (7) has the difference of the percentage of sector employment for 2010 from the percentage for 1990. As a computation it is column(5) minus column(3). For example, row(2) shows changes and percentage shifts in goods production. Goods production employment declined 7.99 percent.

Column(8) translates the share changes into jobs from a share loss. For example row(2) shows 5.968 million jobs lost for goods production employment. If good production had maintained its share of employment as it was in 1990 there would be 10.373 million more goods production jobs than there are in 2010. The number is the product of total establishment employment in row(1) and column(4) and the percentage gain or loss in column(7). Notice that the loss of goods producing employment exactly equals the gain of service providing employment. The other rows in column(8) are computed the same way and distribute the share gains and losses between different industries.

The gain for service providing employment is not evenly distributed across service industries. The gainers are grouped at the top of service prviders and together they have an 9.07 percent gain. The losers are grouped at the bottom of service providers and together than have a 2.93 percent loss. Their combination equals 7.99 percent.

The table also highlights the shift of employment within service providing industries, where there are 14.178 million new jobs that resulted from an industry's percentage increase of all jobs. This constrasts with 3.805 million jobs lost that resulted from an industry's share decreases. The combination exactly equals the 10.374 million gain for service providing industries and the equivalent loss for goods production.

Two pie charts give a visual look at the changes in shares. The first chart has the percentage split of the nearly 14.18 million jobs in share gaining service sectors. The second chart has the percentage of 3.8 million jobs in share losing service sectors.

Distribution of 14.18 Million Job Share Gains by Service Sector 1990-2010



Distribution of 3.81 million Job Share Losses by Service Sector 1990-2010

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Service Jobs - Government

Government

Total government employment for federal, state and local government equals 22.5 million as of 2010. Government, excluding education and public hospital employment has 10.8 million jobs, which is the difference of 22.5 million and 10.4 million jobs in public education and 1.3 million public hospital jobs.

Jobs in government excluding education and hospitals include office work for executive offices, regulatory and legislative bodies, and the judiciary, but also all the rest of the jobs in parks, recreation, public health excluding public hospitals, public works, corrections and a few more. Federal employment includes the postal service and defense department among others.

Government produces valuable services. Valuable production should be added to Gross Domestic Product to reflect our hard work and productive capacity, but government’s valuable services are rarely sold so there is no market value to record as production. What is it worth to have Congress spend months passing environmental legislation, then to have executive bureaucracies write regulations to administer the law, and then to have courts hear law suits to interpret the law?

There is no ready measure of values to include in GDP so the practice is to value government services at cost. Government cost of production though is labor cost only. When the government buys computers and reams of paper it is recorded as a final sale from business to government. Since the goods and services government buys are already included in GDP as part of business final sales, they are not added again. Government’s cost of labor to provide services represents its contribution to GDP. It guarantees that more government jobs mean more Gross Domestic Product.

The decision to use labor cost as government’s addition to GDP is a sensible compromise in the computation of GDP. Since the objective of computing GDP is to measure our productive capacity, government work should not be ignored. No attempt is made to differentiate between one type of government labor and another. When services are bought in common as they are with government they could be for anything.

On April 1, 2005 the Washington Post published an article about a Congressional investigation: “Cost of Cisneros Probe Nears $21 million Over 10 years.” Cisneros was President Clinton’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development way back in 1995. Congress authorized an independent counsel investigation after allegations that Cisneros lied about payments to his mistress. After 4 years and $10.3 million dollars of investigation, Cisneros pleaded guilty. That was in 1999, but the investigation continued in order to investigate if anyone attempted to obstruct justice, the Washington Post reported. The continued probe added another $10.7 million to the expense, hence the caption “$21 million over 10 years”.

We could say America would be better off if the money used on the Cisneros investigation went into medical research or highway construction, but that is different from saying government should reduce its total expenditures, or even that it wasted money. Either expenditure pumps $21 million into the economy and any cut in government spending whether it is for medical research, highway construction or Cisneros probes will reduce GDP and harm employment. Government is a major employer and even though the government has money to pursue what appears like a political vendetta, as in the Cisneros case, America needs government that is actively creating or inventing jobs.

The current expenditures of government add up to $4.997 trillion in 2008 or nearly 35 percent as large as Gross Domestic Product. It is a big enough share to think that government spending by all levels of government provides a mighty engine of employment. All this spending is supported by taxes and borrowing. Taxes reduce private spending and job creation, but those in government are experts at spending all their revenue as fast as they can. They run deficits and make debt finance a way to pep up employment and put off higher taxes. The federal government can borrow but also controls the money supply so it can create money to cover its spending and put off collecting taxes. Local governments can use bond-funded projects to speed up and enlarge spending in the near term and let the growth in property values and higher property taxes pay for capital projects in the future.

The decision to do Cisneros probes or build roads and highways is the decision of government. Builders and developers build a few roads in their new developments, but the roads that get people from here to there are planned and funded by a government. The actual building is typically contracted to private firms in the highway, street and bridge construction industry. The people who work in this industry are counted as part of employment in private business and not counted as government employees. Government employment is already large, but undercounts employment that is the result of government taxing and spending such as employment in the highway, street and bridge construction industry since they are on private payrolls even though their jobs are really the result of government spending. The terms government contractor, outsourcing and privatization all connote private businesses, but they are private businesses doing government funded and government sponsored work. Government employment added to government sponsored employment is more than a mere 22.5 million: much more.

Government creates many jobs both in and out of government but the jobs it has for those on government payrolls has lots of work that develop and support specialized skills and careers in life science, physical science, social science, finance, law, corrections, and transportation. Some of the work is not done anywhere else and requires government funding. We are excluding the jobs in education or public hospitals.

Many of the government’s specialized and professional jobs require college degree training but especially baccalaureate degree training, and that is without mention of the millions of jobs in education, since we are only discussing government excluding education. Nearly 43 percent of jobs in the Federal Government require BA degree skills or higher; 34 percent in state government; 17 in local government.

In life science occupations, conservation scientists, zoologists, foresters, epidemiologists, soil and plant scientists have anywhere from 30 to 80 percent of jobs in government. In the physical sciences, astronomers, atmospheric and space scientists, environmental scientists and hydrologists depend on government to maintain their work and support jobs. In the social sciences 90 percent of forensic scientists and more than 70 percent of geographers work for government. Government employs nearly 30 percent of social scientists. Over half of social scientists in political science and economics work in government jobs, although the percentage applies to those actually working as economists and political scientists and not those teaching at schools and universities. They are counted as faculty in education totals.

In engineering, agricultural engineers, civil engineers, and environmental engineers have 20 to 40 percent of their jobs in government. Government is the biggest employer of mathematicians, statisticians and cartographers who work in jobs outside of teaching.

Counselors and social workers have 266.7 thousand jobs on government payrolls for those working as practitioners, but many work in health care where government supported or subsidized health care supports another 362.5 thousand jobs. Those totals do not count those teaching and working at schools and universities where there are 266.8 thousand more jobs. Counselors and social workers owe their employment to government.

Then there are courts that employ 100 percent of judges, magistrates, administrative law judges, hearing officers and bailiffs, but almost two thirds of court reporters, 53 percent of law clerks and more than 21 percent of lawyers. All of these are over 250 thousand jobs.

The courts enforce laws but law enforcement has more than 625.6 thousand government jobs as police and sheriffs patrol officers, another 109.8 thousand as detectives and investigators, but more jobs as fish and game wardens, parking enforcement officers, railroad and transit police, crossing guards, lifeguards and a few more.

Law enforcement generates prisoners. The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports 7 million Americans under correctional supervision, or 2.1 million in prisons and jails, 765 thousand on parole and 4.1 million on probation for 2004. American needs jobs and millions of prisoners create lots of jobs: 433,200 reported jobs as correctional officers and jailors, 38,200 jobs as first line managers of correctional officers and jailors and 86,600 jobs as Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists.

Outside of the office bureaucracies there are jobs like agricultural inspector, construction and building inspector, highway maintenance worker, power plant operator, water and sewage treatment plant operator where 30 to 90 percent of the jobs are on government payrolls. Over 416.9 thousand work in government transportation jobs with many as air traffic controllers, ambulance drivers, transit bus drivers, subway and street car drivers, bridge and lock tenders, and traffic inspectors among other jobs.

Do not forget the postal service where 747 thousand work and 537.4 thousand work as postmasters, postal clerks, mail sorters, and letter carriers among other jobs. Remember too we are talking about civilian employment so the armed forces are not included here.

Government bureaucracies support a high percentage of jobs in office administration and support jobs. In the federal government the average for office administration and support is 13 percent; in state government, excluding education, and in local government excluding education, 19 percent.

Between 40 and 50 percent of jobs as budget analysts, financial examiners, and appraisers of real estate are in government. All of tax examiners, collectors and revenue agents work for government more than 68.5 thousand strong, and they support thousands more jobs at accounting firms and tax services.

With a 112.1 million service jobs to divvy up, government service, excluding education and hospital employment gives us 10.8 million jobs, but that is only 8.5 percent of establishment employment. There are no more service jobs left and we have distributed all 112.1 million of them by their NAICS sector categories.

In the period from 1990 to 2010, good production employment declined 7.99 percent as service providing employment increased by 7.99 percent. Remember good production equals the total of jobs for natural resources, principally mining and logging, construction and manufacturing. Manufacturing employment went down 7.3 percent with all natural resources, construction and manufacturing employment in decline. The 7.99 percent decrease is a net, which disguises an even bigger shift out of manufacturing employment.

In service providing employment the 7.99 percent increase disguises shifts within service sectors because even though the net increase is 7.99 percent there are sectors that decreased and a combination of services that increased more than 7.99 percent. It is time to make a summary of service employment changes, which comes up next.

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Service Jobs - Food-Accommodation

Accommodation and Food Services

Accommodation and Food Services jobs total 11.1 million in 2010. The accommodation part has traveler accommodations, not residential accommodation. Include hotels, motels, bed and breakfast inns, casino hotels, RV parks, campgrounds and rooming and boarding houses. Rooming and Boarding houses include dormitories, fraternity and sorority houses.

Establishments primarily engaged in preparing food to order for immediate consumption go in this sector as full and limited service restaurants but the key words are preparing food and immediate consumption. Food services have to have both and the definition also fits fast food outlets, cafeterias, pizza delivery, snack bars, takeout, catering, ice cream parlors, and beverage bars. Establishments primarily selling food prepared elsewhere and not packaged for immediate consumption are counted with grocery stores.

Accommodations have 15.8 percent, or 1.76 million of the jobs, where as foodservices has the other 84.2 percent, or 9.35 million of the jobs. However, other sectors have restaurant jobs. For example, a hotel could run a restaurant even though it is primarily engaged in running a hotel. There is one establishment with hotel workers and food service workers. The same hotel might lease their first floor to an independent restaurateur so there might be two establishments, a hotel and a restaurant. In the former the jobs are counted in the accommodation sub sector, and in the latter, food jobs are split between accommodation and food services.

Food service occupations are cooks, bartenders, hosts and hostesses, waiters and waitresses, counter attendants, bartenders, dishwashers and few jobs as drivers, and cashiers. These jobs are 90 percent of restaurant staffing and about 25 to 27 percent of hotel, motel and accommodation staffing. Only about 77 percent of these jobs are actually in the food services sector with the rest scattered in accommodations, in health care where hospitals run food services, at schools which have cafeterias, at ball parks and theatres which run restaurants and sell fast food.

The accommodation industry has significant building and grounds maintenance work with 29 percent of jobs. Maids are 23 percent of hotel-motel employment; desk clerks have nearly 12 percent of jobs. Managerial positions are barely 2 percent of employment in accommodations and food services and mostly confined to food service managers and lodging managers, but also gaming managers since casino hotel jobs are here.

Only a few jobs or occupations use college degree skills and not too many stay around to make restaurant work a career. The net separation rate for an occupation measures the percentage of new entrants needed to replace people who permanently leave an occupation. In restaurants net separations for waiter and waitress tend to be above 50 percent, and serving and counter attendants also have separation rates 50 percent and above. Those ages 16 to 24 work in restaurants but many leave for other occupations. Even so there are millions of jobs and they keep increasing. Add the 9.35 million jobs in restaurants mentioned above to the other food service workers in accommodations, schools, hospitals, retail stores or ball parks, museums and other recreation facilities and the total comes to a little over 11.0 million food service jobs.

Cooking used to be one of America’s biggest do it yourself occupations. Everyone can stay home and cook, but more and more we go out. In the production-marketing chain of food this helps our employment and probably more than most people realize. Start on the farm and let’s count America’s farmers. Next add all the jobs in pesticide, fertilizer and agricultural chemicals, and all of the jobs in agricultural implement manufacturing. Add in the jobs at farm supply wholesalers, and farm raw material wholesalers. Then move on to food manufacturing. Add all the manufacturing jobs milling, canning, freezing, bottling, refining, slaughtering, baking, brewing, distilling, fermenting and packaging. Add them to grocery store merchant wholesaler jobs and all the jobs at grocery stores, convenience stores, liquor stores and food stores. The total comes to 6.82 million jobs in 2010.

Worse, jobs from the farm to the supermarket continue to decline due to productivity growth and imports in the global economy. Restaurants are the only part of the food chain Americans can count on for new jobs. You may like to go to restaurants; you may need to go to restaurants, but America needs jobs, so now you know, you must go to restaurants. It’s your civic duty. Go out often.

Maybe a few get rich in the restaurant business but if we look at the wage data reported for the BLS occupational employment survey, then food services wages are dead last among America’s jobs with a median annual wage of $18,770 in May 2010, which is down slightly less than inflation from 2009,but up slightly from $13,820 in 1999 and most years of the last decade. The reported and published wages are supposed to include tip income, but that implies the managers reporting wages for the Occupational Employment Survey know what they are.

With a 112.1 million service jobs to divvy up, accommodation and food services employment gives us 11.1 million jobs, but that is only 8.6 percent of establishment employment. Accommodation and food services employment is growing faster than the national rate. We have to expect a relative increase in accommodation and food services in national employment. We only have 1 sector left to go, government with 10.78 million jobs.

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